Game Preview: Patriots at Bills

SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS

By Paul Perillo

When the Patriots run – Edge: Bills

Buffalo has not been great when it comes to stopping the run. Injuries along the front seven have impacted the performance, but even at full strength it’s not something the Bills have been known for. This season Buffalo sits in the middle of the pack in run defense, allowing a shade over 111 yards per game. But on a per-carry basis the number plummets to just under 4.6 yards per attempt, which ranks near the bottom at 27th. The problem for the Patriots is their ground game hasn’t been effective much at all this season. Even before Rhamondre Stevenson went down with an ankle injury against the Chargers, New England wasn’t able to generate much in the running game. Ezekiel Elliott has run hard between the tackles but hasn’t found enough openings to put much pressure on the defense. The Patriots injury problems up front haven’t helped the cause either. As for the Bills, things could be improving soon as defensive tackle Daquan Jones has returned to practice and is eligible to come off injured reserve. That would help offset the loss of Jordan Phillips, who will be on IR for the rest of the regular season. Jones is a space eater in the middle and should take some of the heat off undersized middle linebacker Terrel Bernard and make life easier on the Bills front seven.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Bills

Bailey Zappe will get his first opportunity to go against a Bills secondary that has struggled at times playing against the Patriots. Otherwise, Buffalo’s pass defense sits in the top 10 of the league, even after losing star corner Tre’Davious White. The Bills brought in veteran Rasul Douglas and he has helped solidify the unit. Douglas joins Taron Johnson, Dane Jackson and Christian Benford along with safeties Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Taylor Rapp. That group has been effective taking the ball away and also benefits from an emerging pass rush – led by Leonard Floyd, Ed Oliver, A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau. That group can get after the passer, particularly when playing with the lead. Zappe will try to offset that by using quick passes and spreading the ball around to whichever healthy receivers he can find. He’s been without DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas and Hunter Henry at times over the past several weeks so it’s been difficult finding a rapport with any of his targets. Parker and Douglas stepped up in Denver and could be the top options this week as well. But it won’t be easy on the road against what has been one of the stingiest secondaries in football.

When the Bills run – Edge: Patriots

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Buffalo’s ground game has taken off since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator five games ago. Since then James Cook has emerged as a key cog in the attack, which was particularly true in Buffalo’s blowout win over Dallas that saw Cook pile up 179 yards on the ground. Cook, Latavius Murray, Ty Johnson and recently Leonard Fournette have formed a dynamic backfield that has produced some impressive numbers under Brady, and the entire Bills offense has taken off as a result. However, the Patriots run defense hasn’t sprung many leaks all season and remains one of the best units in all of football. No one has consistently been able to produce on the ground against New England, largely due to the strong play of the front seven. Christian Barmore has been the best player in that group but he hasn’t been alone. Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, Anfernee Jennings, Deatrich Wise, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai have all played with toughness and physicality even as the losses have continued to pile up. Even though Buffalo has transformed into a more physical offense, don’t expect the Patriots run defense to suddenly stop shutting things down on the ground.

When the Bills pass – Edge: Bills

One of the benefits of the Bills renewed commitment to running the ball has been allowing Josh Allen to take some easy underneath throws. Cook has been a huge part of the passing game under Brady, and Allen has used him effectively underneath instead of having to constantly push the ball downfield in search of big plays. Allen has been much sharper as of late and the offense has piled up the points in bunches as a result. Stefon Diggs remains the key weapon but as opponents continue to give him extra attention Allen has been more willing to spread it around. Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield have been more involved, as have tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. That group, along with Cook, has been active as the Bills have resurrected their season. The Patriots continue to compete with an undermanned secondary that has included Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant, Alex Austin and Shaun Wade in recent weeks. That group will be tested by a Bills attack that is hitting its stride after several weeks of mistake-prone play in the middle of the season – and Buffalo is still desperately trying to get itself into the playoffs.

Special Teams – Edge: Bills

Both teams come into the game with some questions at kicker. The normally reliable Tyler Bass has hit a bit of a rough patch and has missed five field goals on the season. Chad Ryland has been dealing with those struggles all season and has misfired on some short ones in recent weeks. But Ryland’s 56-yard game-winner might be the perfect way for the rookie to work past those struggles. Neither side has been especially productive in the return game. Deonte Harty handled punts and averages a healthy 10 yards per return while Ty Johnson takes care of kicks. Bryant has been used on punts for the Patriots while Jalen Reagor recently assumed kick return duties following the release of Ty Montgomery. But it’s the Patriots propensity for mistakes in the kicking game that give the Bills the edge. Penalties and poor coverage have dominated the Patriots special teams this season and it’s been that way in virtually every game. Until those errors get cleaned up on a consistent basis it’s hard to give New England the edge.

QUICK HITS

• The Patriots have recorded 78 wins over the Bills, the most by the Patriots against any one opponent. The Jets are second on that list with 74 wins by the Patriots.
• The Buffalo Bills snapped a streak of 13 straight road losses to the Patriots, including 12 straight wins by the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, with their 17-9 win in the 2014 regular season finale on Dec. 28, 2014.
• Bill Belichick has a 104-42 (.712) all-time regular season record against the AFC East as head coach of the Patriots.